Budapesti Műszaki és Gazdaságtudományi Egyetem - Villamosmérnöki és Informatikai Kar

Automatizálási és Alkalmazott Informatikai Tanszék

The aim of the work is to create an experimental optimization framework for modelling the competitive behavior of refining and petrochemical market players on an imaginary market with different market (product demand and pricing) and asset (various refinery and petrochemicals production structure) scenarios. A model solution is to be developed by considering both expanding and shrinking market situations for multiple products from multiple production assets. The model is to be able to calculate the theoretical market supply optimum by considering logistics distances and different asset production costs. Also the time dependency of optimum shall be handled in a time-series from could be used to create long time horizon forecasts.

To be simple, Imagine a network (graph) with refineries and gas stations in the nodes and transportation (pipe, rail, truck) in the edges. The goal is to calculate the cost of a gasoline / diesel by incorporating raw material (crude oil), production (refinery) and transportation costs. Note that different transportation methods have different costs. The goal is to define a model of the problem described above and calculate the optimal cost setup for a particular company. Then apply it to companies competing in the same region.

One should start with a literature review to understand the state-of-art modelling techniques fitting for this purpose. A comprehensive evaluation system of conditions is to be prepared and the best fitting modelling solution is to be selected. Visualization of the results shall also be proposed but in the experimental part of the work the focus shall be put on the technical modelling solution. The experimental part shall contain the description of the developed model solution and the result on the given market and asset conditions in different scenarios. The fitness, practicality and the robustness of the modelling solution shall also be demonstrated.

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